Greetings and thanks for taking the time :)
Last post I spent most of my efforts just laying out raw data in attempt to show that the immigration wave we are currently experiencing are increasingly at rates we cannot hope to systematically handle. That there are multiple issues from a lack of funding for actual legal processing to a fast increasing backlog of court cases on immigration due to the overwhelming increase of Asylum based immigration claims, Asylum immigration, being the critical area that is causing an absolute systematic collapse nation wide.
The two main things I wanted to showcase in the last post were oriented at both sides. I hoped to show the liberal minded that the crisis is not hyperbole and exaggerated or only out of hate/bad faith. The #’s are simply not sustainable. For the conservative minded, that our entire focus is on security already and we do little to fund the legal system of immigration to help alleviate the pressure; I showed the criminal data to get the point across that there are 300k total encounters while the criminal data for the entire year for is 30k. They are primarily a demographic of poor immigrants seeking opportunity, not criminals and terrorists. This is not stating I am not concerned about the minority of criminals who do enter. I am, just wiling to nuance that this is a minority and only one aspect to a much larger, multi area issue.
For this post we will spend our efforts going over the highly advertised bussing of immigrants to Sanctuary states. Abbott has been accused of setting this entire disaster into motion so let’s check that claim and gauge the overall impact in the sanitary cities. We will start by examining modern immigration context so everyone can be on the same page of how we arrived here since the 2000’s and our overhaul starting during Bush. Then move to each city and examine their situation as it relates to migrants/finances/housing.
Immigration in Modern Political Context
We are going to start off with George W Bush, who campaigned heavily on Immigration reform as there were growing concerns of illegal immigration rising across the voting base.
Bush Era - Start of DHS & The Security State
Bush more than doubled border security funding from $4.6 billion in FY 2001 to $10.4 billion in FY 2007. Bush increased the number of Border Patrol agents by 63 percent – from just over 9,000 agents at the beginning of this Administration to nearly 15,000 at the end of 2007. Basically doubling the # while in office.
The September 11th attacks in 2001 drastically shifted the border conversation from overhauling immigration and working with Mexico economically to securing the border for National Security threats. The Department of Homeland Security was created as a result of this, and DHS is now responsible for the border.
During the Bush years, the bones for the level of militarization we see at the border were created.
Obama Era “The Deporter In Chief”
Obama kept the ball rolling by shaping the problem a different way. Citing the limited resources available for immigration enforcement and the impossibility of deporting 11 million undocumented people, the Obama administration sought to prioritize the use of the agency’s enforcement personnel, detention space, and removal assets. Noting that ICE could only remove an estimated 400,000 undocumented immigrants a year at most, representing less than 4% of the undocumented population in the U.S. during that time, the administration sought to channel limited resources towards more urgent threats.
In a set of 2010 and 2011 memoranda from then-U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Director John Morton, the Obama administration created three categories of undocumented immigrants that would be prioritized for arrest and deportation.
The first priority consisted of undocumented immigrants who posed a threat to national security or public safety, including those engaged in or suspected of terrorism or espionage, those convicted of a crime or possessing outstanding criminal warrants, or those who participated in organized criminal gang activity. Within this priority category, ICE would draw distinctions based on the severity of convictions: level 1 offenders were convicted of aggravated felonies, level 2 offenders were convicted of any felony, and level 3 offenders were convicted of a misdemeanor.
The second priority consisted of undocumented immigrants who recently unlawfully entered the United States. The third priority consisted of undocumented immigrants who obstructed immigration controls, including those who re-entered the U.S. unlawfully after removal, didn’t heed a final order of removal, or engaged in visa or identification fraud.
Trump Era
The Trump administration abandoned the Obama framework, asserting that all undocumented migrants were deemed priorities for apprehension and removal. On January 25, 2017, the Trump administration issued an Executive Order entitled “Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States,” which, along with subsequent DHS guidance, effectively “prioritized” all undocumented immigrants for removal at any time. The Trump priorities set out seven broad categories, including new categories for those who engaged in visa fraud or identification misrepresentation. However, in contrast to the Obama administration’s tiered prioritization categories, the Trump administration asserted that each of the categories were of equal weight – serious offenses shared the same priority as minor ones. Effectively, the Trump guidance expanded the understanding of “enforcement priority” “so broadly as to render the term meaningless.”
In effect, the Trump administration indicated that anyone who was deportable or inadmissible was a priority for removal. The Trump guidance not only directed the prioritization for the arrest and deportation of any undocumented immigrant who had been convicted or even charged with a criminal offense – it also prioritized those merely deemed to “have committed acts which constitute a chargeable criminal offense.” In addition, the guidance included a broad, ill-defined catch-all category for those who “in the judgment of an immigration officer, otherwise pose a risk to public safety or national security.” These broad categories could be extended to cover those with minor offenses like speeding, or those who committed immigration offenses, like unlawful entry, even if they never were charged with those offenses.
By equally prioritizing those convicted of crimes, those charged with crimes, and those whose conduct did not lead to charges, but whose conduct could “constitute” a chargeable offense or could be deemed to be a public safety risk, the Trump guidance significantly expanded the universe of prioritized migrants. In addition, unlike the Obama administration guidance, the Trump guidance did not distinguish between seriousness of offenses, prioritizing – at least in theory – minor traffic offenses equally with violent crimes.
These broad enforcement priorities translated to more arrests and deportations of less serious offenders and fewer arrests and deportations of more serious offenders. According to ICE data, the monthly number of level 3 (misdemeanors) offenders detained climbed from 6,000 in March 2015 to 9,500 in April 2019. At the same time, the number of level 1 (felony and aggravated felony) offenders detained decreased from 7,500 to 6,000. Additionally, an estimated 1 in 10 undocumented individuals arrested during FY2017 had neither a criminal conviction or charge. By targeting the entire undocumented population rather than those who posed threats, the Trump prioritization policy faced criticism for wasting resources
Biden Era
Like the Obama administration, the Biden administration has grounded the need for prioritization in DHS’s limited resources and the impossibility of removing all undocumented immigrants from the U.S. In a January 20 memorandum from acting DHS secretary David Pekoske , the administration directed that DHS’s interim immigration enforcement priorities are undocumented immigrants who pose a threat to 1) national security; 2) border security and; 3) public safety. These guidelines, modified and further built out by a February 18 memorandum from ICE acting director Tae Johnson, represent a break from the Trump administration and a return to the structure of Obama administration prioritization, with some modifications. DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas is expected to issue permanent guidelines in the spring, following the review of DHS policies.
Let’s be clear that this is not happening as a result of Biden’s inaction, it is a direct result of his large amount of actions. By taking 535 immigration actions over its first three years, the Biden administration has already outpaced the 472 immigration-related executive actions undertaken in all four years of President Donald Trump’s term.1
The Biden administration’s 535 executive actions through January 17, as calculated the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), were issued in one of the most turbulent migration periods within the Western Hemisphere and indeed globally in recent history. As such, the actions have covered a wide spectrum. When the administration lifted the COVID-19-related Title 42 expulsions authority in May 2023, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) replaced it with a system of incentives for asylum seekers arriving at ports of entry and disincentives for those crossing between ports of entry without authorization, among other changes. Because of temporary protections, such as parole, extended to hundreds of thousands of arriving migrants, approximately 2.3 million people living in the United States hold liminal legal statuses.
The growth of NTAs (Notice to Appear) issued at ports of entry is a phenomenon that appears to be specific to the Biden administration. Roughly the same amount of NTA’s were issued at ports of entry during the Obama and Trump administrations. From February 2013 to January 2017, the span of the second Obama administration, OFO issued 125,689 NTAs. Similarly, 139,865 NTAs were issued between February 2017 to January 2021, the span of the Trump administration. OFO’s use of NTAs declined at the very start of the Trump administration, then climbed back to nearly 5,000 each month (higher than the monthly numbers during the Obama administration). OFOs use of NTAs already began to decline in 2019, but then declined to only a few hundred each month during the pandemic, when Title 42 was in place. Compared to the Obama administration, during which OFO issued 2,619 NTAs on average each month, and the Trump administration’s average of 2,914 per month. The OFO under the Biden administration has issued 13,784 NTAs per month on average so far and a total of 413,522 NTAs since February 2021.
The growth in OFO-issued NTAs occurred in three waves during the Biden administration. First, in the summer of 2021, OFO issued as many as 10,000 NTAs a month—a record at the time—but then declined to pre-pandemic numbers at the start of 2022. OFO’s use of NTAs resurged again in the summer of 2022, growing significantly to between 20,000 and 25,000 in late 2022 where it remained until May 2023. Coinciding with the termination of Title 42 in May 2023, the number of NTAs shot up again to a high of 44,900 in July, the month of TRAC’s most recent data. Notably, although the end of Title 42 coincided with the third and largest wave of new NTAs, OFO’s growing use of NTAs preceded the termination of Title 42 by two years.
American Cities Collapsing Financially
Sounds like hyperbole, but I would not be writing this article if it were not. Immigration is usually not on my list of concerns, but we have illegal immigrants who are being sheltered all across the US in schools, airports, apartment buildings and being provided food, cell phones off of our tax payer dollars. The average wait time being years before they have a trial. Kinda can’t stick my head in the sand just because it is not my primary passion.
There should be zero arguments that this is not sustainable or fair to our own population.
At the direction of Texas’ Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, the Lone Star state has bused over 90,000 migrants to “sanctuary cities” run by Democrats like Washington, DC, New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver and Los Angeles since April 2022, according to numbers released by the governor’s office Friday.
“Now, the rest of America can understand exactly what is going on..” - Gov Abbott. His plan has indeed worked; credit to him on that if nothing else. When looking at the $’s in each city though, while Abbott may have did some damage to some of these cities, not all are a result of the bussing situation.
Chicago
Since August 2022, Chicago has experienced roughly 30,000 asylum seekers which has stressed the city’s finances. In a short period of time, forced migration from Texas has created a localized humanitarian crisis in Chicago.
Chicago has localized their efforts to keep the illegal immigrants in the minority communities to the South and West sides. This is adversely affecting the black community and we are going to see Trump win the black vote due to this in what would normally be blue areas.
Looking at a report on total state spending projected and committed on illegal aliens since August 2022. In total, that number for all state agencies exceeds $708 million.
This number includes the recent commitment Governor Pritzker made yesterday for $160 million more to Chicago for migrants. In addition to the $160 million, another $115 million will go directly to Chicago and over $54 million will be spent on just asylee healthcare.
If we bump it out to two years and include educational costs of all the TESL needs. $2.2 Billion in two years & we are only at 35,000 illegal immigrants/aslyum-seekers.
Not all spending is even being tracked. As of January, CPS claimed it had approximately 5,000 migrant students enrolled, which at a $24,000 operating cost per pupil, means the district is spending an additional $120 million in FY 2024 alone. Given the difficulty of tracking and calculating the number of school age migrant students, we have only included that one year’s cost in the above migrant spending totals.
Currently, the state is funding temporary housing, including rented apartments and homes for migrants. The state is providing up to $9,000 in rental assistance over a 6-month period, which includes assistance with moving in and a starter kit to furnish the apartment.
Chicago is giving $9,000 in rental assistance to migrants in need of temporary housing - after it paid a medical firm a staggering $7.2million for staffing shelters for just one week, according to official records.
The invoices covered 400 employees who worked between April 22 to May 19, including one nurse who was paid $20,000 for a single week of work in December. The same nurse made $16,536 for seven days of work in April.
The city appeared to reduce hourly rates after reports of their December invoices, but the lowest paid staff rates were still $50 per hour, with the most expensive being $156 per hour before overtime.2
What do the actual citizens think though?
From January 2024 - Democrats are suing their own city over utilizing a park that the community utilized for the elderly as a shelter for illegal immigrants
Nov 19th, 2023 - plans announced to build a new migrant camp on the South Side.
October 5th 2023. An overview of the Chicago Crisis.
September 2023 - Two democrats Bringing a lawsuit, upset that the black communities in Chicago are underfunded while funding the clearly abused immigration system.
May 31st, 2023 when $51 million dollars was granted to house and feed illegal immigrants over our own citizens. That was only for a few weeks.
Why would they not be upset when Lake Shore Hotels are providing free housing to illegal immigrants.
When we refuse to fund an educational system for our children and instead house illegal immigrants. Multiple schools. South Shore School , Woodlawn, St Bartholomew.
When O’hare has over 500 migrants sheltering out of the public view.
This video explains Federal Temporary Protection Status a lot of people were hoping for, which granted people from certain nations 18 months immediate access to work - this expired July 31st. With only up to 1/4th of the immigrants likely to be eligible, the remainder will have to enter the backlogged Asylum process and wait years. While IL taxpayers fund it.
Chicago can’t even pay for its own city. Chicago sold its streets to Morgan Stanley and investors for $1.57 billion, giving up control of their streets and allowing a private company to profit from parking meters until 2084. Which Morgan Stanley bought on behalf of Abu Dhabi…so it’s foreign owned. Let that one sink in. Selling our streets to a foreign investor to maintain city funding.
Not to mention Chicago’s issue with Pension debt to the tune of over $35 Billion it will not be able to pay its future retirees. Or at least will have to go further into debt to do so.
Chicago also has a high population of homelessness. Without doing a full dive on how we subcategorize varying states of homelessness, the total population that is experiencing unstable housing and homelessness on a regular basis is 68,000. This is drastically different from the Chicago Gov Data that will only show 6,500 roughly & I want to be clear to why the Gov data is garbage in this case.
The Point-in-Time (PIT) method is the traditional way the Department of Housing and Urban Development counts people that are unhoused. The PIT counts how many people are sleeping on the street or in shelters on one cold January night every year. This method only counts to people visible. Who knows how many are missed and it does not account for those who are doubling up and may literally be homeless the next day or week.
The CCH at least went out of its way to contact all the local social agencies working with homeless populations to help do a much more thorough tracking and understanding on a much longer time-frame analysis. It’s simply much better done by comparison.
I am all for humanitarian aid. I grasp these asylum seekers are largely seeking a better life, but so are the rest of us. They do not meet the definition of Asylum, they are abusing our immigration system therefore making them illegal in their approach, and the ultimate reality that is we can’t afford it.
Denver
Looking to Denver, over the last year 40,000 have made their way to the city of roughly 700k, putting their systems in a stressed state. Like Chicago, the mayor of Denver has been calling on help from the Biden Admin for months with no substantial help in how to approach this growing crisis.
Where’s the Governor? Governor Polis did not even mention migrants in his state of the state address. He told 9NEWS it was a federal issue, not a state one. Several cities that 9news contacted Tuesday, like Aurora, also said this is a federal issue that needs to be addressed on the federal level.
Denver had $4.9 billion available to pay $6.4 billion worth of bills.
Denver stated it is preparing to spend 10% of this year's general fund budget on the migrant crisis in preparation for the likely continued pace of asylum seekers arriving daily in Denver. If the city continues to shelter them, Mayor Mike Johnston said it's estimated to cost $180 million in 2024.
We will start the year with approximately $20 million to support migrant sheltering services and will continue to monitor funding needs throughout the year. With the details outlined in this budget, I am confident that we continue to be prepared to serve our residents through whatever may come in 2024.
In addition to reserves, the annual General Fund contingency is budgeted at $34.2 million to address unbudgeted expenditures, and the Capital Improvement Program will hold $6.4 million for unexpected needs in 2024. And as we will likely continue to receive arrivals of new migrants from Central and South America into 2024.
In September 2023, Denver Health’s CEO started sounding the alarm to the growing gap in funding for those who cannot pay their medical expenses. The breakdown here is important so pay attention please: 20% of patients at Denver Health are unhoused, which often results in longer stays at the hospital for non-medical reasons. Last year Denver Health saw 7,300 homeless patients and provided over 29,000 services.
In 2020, the hospital had about $60 million in uncompensated care, within two years that number doubled to $120 million and last year that number increased to $136 million with a quarter of that cost coming from non-Denver residents. - That’s $35 million. The surge is not sustainable, but we cannot scapegoat the immigration issue as the sole cause here; the doubled homeless population in Denver within two years has also contributed as 9,000 out of 10,000 homeless in Dec 2023 were already living in Denver.
The school system is also experiencing stress with staffing and steady influx making financial planning challenging. Denver Public Schools (DPS) says they’re now averaging about 100 new-to-country students each week, as the district continues to deal with influx of migrants to Colorado.
The funding per student is set on a timetable in October - so those who arrive after are not counted towards the funding. “And that’s about $17.5 million that we’ve been missing out on.” - which equates to just over 1% of the district’s $1.3 billion budget, but Pribble says the district is handling the situation surprisingly well & nowhere near needing to pull out of reserves.
The city did what it could over winter to provide aid and housing to the populations arriving, who likely have never experienced cold winters like they did this year. Denver stated it would not kick them out during winter, but as of February though, the attitudes have shifted.
"That would be a very, very painful conversation about budget options if we had to figure that out,"
I will point out that those who are seeking immigration voiced their gratitude for the city taking care of them & voiced their desire to work and give back to the community. I showcased the average backlog for the judicial system that it takes to receive a work permit - these people are not lazy and there are service jobs in the economy that they can perform while they wait for a determination of their application.
This week on February 6th, Denver announced it has begun ejecting around 800 migrant families from shelters as it scales back on aid for illegal immigrants.
On Monday, about 140 families were booted out from temporary accommodations with the remaining 660 families expected to be removed over the next few weeks, according to city officials.
The rumors of work available in Carbondale - which is outside of Aspen - spread and the town of less than 7,000 is experiencing issues. As one could imagine, a ski resort town does not have facilities for sheltering homeless populations. Even the 125 they have in their town is providing difficulties, with up to 5 sleeping in one car due to the lack of facilities to help.
Overall though, Denver is experiencing a drop in overall influx it seems for now.
Boston
The $4.28 billion FY 2024 Operating Budget and $4.2 billion FY 2024-2028 Capital Plan build on a strong and stable financial foundation and make new investments in priority areas alongside sustained investments designed to deliver the more equitable, vibrant, and resilient City our residents deserve.
The FY24 Operating Budget and FY24-FY28 Capital Plan are supported by $551.7 million in federal American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) funds. To learn more about transformative ARPA investments, visit the Federal Funds page.
Currently, the state spends about $45 million a month to house both homeless residents and migrants who are new to the state in existing shelters as well as various hotels and motels across the state. Massachusetts is the only state in the nation with a right to shelter law.
The Healey administration published a report this week making public for the first time all of the Massachusetts towns and cities eligible to shelter migrant families.
Administration and Finance Secretary Matthew Gorzkowicz and Housing Secretary Ed Augustus authored the report, which indicates that the state’s emergency shelter costs may approach $2 billion over the next two years.
Gorzkowicz and Augustus wrote in the report that most families live in shelters for over a year, so the Bay State will need to take a two-year approach to funding the emergency housing assistance program.
Gov. Maura Healey has repeatedly said that her administration is focused on getting work authorizations for the migrants.
Healey declared a state of emergency over the summer and activated the National Guard to assist with the influx of migrants.
With the colder weather setting in, Healey stated the situation is “not sustainable,” and needs more help from the Federal government.
State officials opened emergency shelters in Cambridge and at the Park Plaza Transportation Building in Boston to provide additional winter shelter.
As of November 1, once the state reached its capacity of 7,500 families, a waitlist will be established - meaning families who come to Massachusetts and need shelter will be placed on a waitlist until space is available for them.
Due to a lot of people ending up sleeping outside the airport, the Healey administration decided to open a shelter at the Melnea Cass Recreational Center in Roxbury, which has been controversial for the community.
But the shelter is a source of controversy in the community since the beds have displaced many programs. Some activists are seeking a meeting with Governor Healey and Mayor Wu. "The bottom line is we're of being dictated to as to what happens in our community," said Sadiki Kambom with the Black Community Information Center.
For Boston though, the crisis is more unique; Massachusetts has the third largest diaspora for Haitians fleeing the current civil war happening there. Which if you’re interested - this was about a month or two before the further collapse of Haiti last year.
New York
I saved New York for last because New York has the most by the #. As of February 4, 2024, the City had approximately 66,200 people seeking asylum in City funded shelters, and over 175,300 have come through the City’s system since the spring of 2022. Since August 2022, Texas has bused 33,600 migrants to New York, which is less than 20% of the entire total. It’s not Texas that is the issue for New York - it is their Right to Shelter laws that is being exploited. Right to Shelter gives temporary shelter and a bed for anyone who requests it.
In May 2023, City Hall began sending some asylum seekers to hotel shelters upstate. The City of New York faced legal pushback from several counties, but continues to pay for shelter and services in several locations around the state.
Deputy Mayor for Health and Human Services Anne Williams-Isom, speaking at the event held at the Museum of Jewish Heritage in Lower Manhattan at the end of Jan 2024, stated the city has received more than 173,900 migrants, with 60% (more than 104,000) moving to other localities to find housing. The shelter system currently has 122,300 in its care – a population that combines both asylum-seekers and traditionally homeless populations.
New York has spent over $2 billion to date on asylum seekers. The City updated its cost projections in its FY 2024 Preliminary Budget and Financial Plan to $4.2 billion in FY 2024, $4.9 billion in FY 2025, $2.5 billion for FY 2026 and $1.5 billion in FY 2027.3
New York City’s budget is running a deficit, not a surplus. The deficit is expected to swell to $9.5 billion next year and $7.7 billion in Fiscal Year 2027. Depending how long this crisis continues to evolve, this could become a more serious matter on the financial end. New York’s finances are thankfully not as bad as Chicago’s.
There are other community impacts as well. Students were booted from a Brooklyn school to make room for nearly 2,000 migrants which caused outrage in the community. Forced into remote learning which has been shown to hurt academic performance in children and teens.
The city has signed more than $2 billion in no-bid contracts, some with vendors that have been accused of abusing migrants.
June 2023
August 2023
September 2023
And As of January 2024 - sentiments have fully swung on the asylum seekers.
And starting in February, the beating of the police officer did not help the situation for anyone.
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has now identified two of the suspects in the recent beating of police officers in Times Square as members of the Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua. The alleged perpetrators, Wilson Juarez, 21, and Kelvin Servita-Arocha, 19, were officially charged last week in the Jan. 27 attack.
And not to fear monger, but just so the info is out there objectively.
According to reports, some of Tren de Aragua’s members may have arrived in the U.S. after a prison break in September 2023. At that time, approximately 1,000 gang members managed to escape Tocoron Prison in Venezuela, including Tren de Aragua head Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores (“Niño Guerrero,” or “Warrior Boy”) along with 80 senior gang leaders. Interpol warns that Guerrero Flores may be hiding in the United States.
Concluding Remarks
I showed a bunch of data and #’s last time to the abnormal spike in the #’s we are experiencing across the border. For this post I tried to show the impact in varying American cities that the issue is having, largely independent of Govenor Abbott’s efforts in several cases.
My goal is not to dissuade anyone from thinking positive towards immigration & migrants. Again…I am pro Immigration. The issues we are facing must be openly discussed from both sides so we can at least attempt to reach a comprise. Americans are suffering and Non-Americans are suffering; no one is winning this game.
We need an immediate change to the Border policies that relate towards seeking Asylum. Biden’s NTA rates are a large factor to this entire thing and this is solely a Biden administration phenomena to date. My fears are that instead of discussing solutions that will in the long term help resolve the issues within our system…we will end up discussing immigration from a "defensive” position. We need more than spending money on humans to patrol a multi thousand mile long border. We need more immigration attorneys and more immigration judges to help with a system that needs to process more immigrants in a timely manner. This is difficult given we are the least educated workforce in the Modern nations. Welcome to America.
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